On Success, Luck, and Values

DanielOctober 1, 2025October 28, 2025

This is a less technical piece than what I usually write on this blog. Hope you enjoy it!

Lately, I’ve been thinking a lot about long-term games. There’s a considerable amount of luck and timing that goes into most success stories. Especially in tech! You can have a great idea, but if the timing is off, it just won’t work, no matter how hard you try.

Sometimes, though, you simply work really hard, stick around long enough, and eventually things click because the timing shifts in your favor. Other times, you put in years of effort, things don’t go your way, and you eventually realize you need to pick yourself back up and try again.

I don’t think people fully account for luck and timing. Our brains prefer the comforting belief that hard work inevitably leads to success - but that’s not always true. By the way, Annie Duke shares some very interesting ideas on this topic in her book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke.

Hard work doesn’t always result in success. I know plenty of smart, dedicated people who worked hard but achieved only average outcomes.

That’s why I think it’s so important to work with people you admire and who share similar values as you. Nothing is certain. Success might come in five years, twenty years, or maybe never. But one thing is certain: sharing the journey with high-quality people will educate you, improve your life, and make the ride more meaningful.

And beyond that, surrounding yourself with the right people increases your odds of staying in the game for the long run, thus increasing your overall success rate. I think it’s a good bet to optimize for the day-to-day process, not just the outcome. After all, the journey makes up 99% of your life, as Tim Ferriss and Chris Williamson discuss in this wonderful interview - around the 1h:22min timestamp:

Later edit: another really good book on this topic is Richer, Wiser, Happier by William Green.